U.S. East Coast On High Alert As Future Hurricane " Imelda" Develops Over The Weekend Of Florida Coast: FORECAST
September 26, 2025 -- 11:30pm By: Joe Cantoras // TheBlakeMoiaShow.com Certified Chief Meteorologist & Tropical Weather Expert
- 11pm tropical advisory for PTC (Potential Tropical Cyclone) number 9
- TPC 9 Forecasted to become Category 1 Hurricane over the weekend
- Tropical storm warnings and advisories issued for the Bahamas
- Unclear if storm will stall, hit land or move out to sea
- Increased odds for tropical storm force winds in the Brevard County area and points along the east coast
TBMS future forecast model showing a hurricane strengthening just off the Florida east coast.
- BULLETIN
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
- NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
- AL092025 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
- DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WEEKEND...
- SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS
- SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...
INFORMATION -----------------------------------------------
- LOCATION
21.5N 76.0W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
35 MPH...55 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT
NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
- WATCHES AND WARNINGS --------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:
- * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for.:
- * Portions of the northwestern Bahamas, including Eleuthera, New Providence, the Abacos, Berry Islands, and Grand Bahama Island
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
- DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 76.0 West.
The system is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A north-northwestward motion is expected to begin by early Saturday and continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas this weekend and approach the southeast U.S. coast early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system is expected to become a tropical depression by Saturday night. Gradual strengthening is forecast thereafter, with the system becoming a tropical storm by early Sunday, and a hurricane by late Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
- HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ----------------------
WIND:
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the central Bahamas beginning Saturday night or early Sunday and are possible in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday.
RAINFALL:
The disturbance is expected to produce the following storm total rainfall amounts through Monday morning. Eastern Cuba: 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 16 inches possible. Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches are expected. Hispaniola, Jamaica, and portions of central and southern Cuba: 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall are expected.
This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. An increasing threat of heavy rainfall from this system is forecast over the southern Mid-Atlantic through coastal Georgia which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding into next week.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.
STORM SURGE:
A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
SURF:
Swells generated by both this system and Hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to portions of the southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents
Latest Satellite Image Loop Of PTC Nine
- Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
- NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
- AL092025 1100 PM EDT
- Fri Sep 26 2025
Thanks to the crew of a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which has been flying a surveillance mission in the disturbance this evening. Dropsonde data from this flight, as well as surface observations from Cuba, suggest that the system is still a trough of low pressure, and the trough axis is a little farther west than previously estimated.
Maximum winds remain near 30 kt, and the pressure has dropped slightly to 1007 mb based on the dropsonde data. The current motion is now estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt. The system is expected to slow down and turn north-northwestward by Saturday morning and continue that trajectory over the weekend, embedded in the southerly flow between a deep-layer trough over the southeastern U.S. and a ridge over the west-central Atlantic.
The track models are in good agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast. The new NHC forecast track has been shifted westward during that period, mainly due to the westward adjustment of the initial position, but it is also a bit slower than the previous prediction based on the latest guidance.
There is significantly more uncertainty in the track forecast after day 3, but at the very least it appears that the system will slow down considerably and perhaps even stall near the coast of South Carolina.
Interestingly, the 18z GFS and ECMWF solutions no longer show the system moving inland over the southeastern U.S. and have come more in line with their respective ensemble means, as well as the HCCA consensus aid and Google DeepMind mean. For this new forecast, a very slow, nearly stationary motion is shown on day 5, with perhaps some hint of the start of a northeastward motion.
That said, even if the system stalls just offshore, it would still be large enough to cause wind and coastal flooding impacts along the southeastern U.S. coast, as well as heavy rainfall/flooding concerns in inland areas.
Global models suggest it will still take another 24 hours or so for the system to develop a well-defined circulation and organized convection to be classified as a tropical depression. After that time, strengthening is expected while the system moves over very warm waters and within a divergent upper-level environment.
The NHC forecast continues to show the system reaching hurricane strength in 3-4 days, which is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. Stronger shear, and possibly the beginnings of an interaction with a nearby frontal boundary, could cause some weakening by day 5.
KEY MESSAGES:
- 1. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm this weekend and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches, respectively, are in effect. Rainfall associated with this system will impact eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, and the Bahamas through the weekend.
- 2. There is an increasing threat of heavy rainfall early next week from coastal Georgia through the Carolinas and into the southern Mid-Atlantic states, which could cause flash, urban, and river flooding.
- 3. The system is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it approaches the southeast U.S. coast early next week, where there is a risk of storm surge and wind impacts. Residents in that area should monitor updates to the forecast and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
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