Current-

Tonight: Scattered showers have developed across portions of east central Florida this afternoon, primarily focused across the greater Orlando area. Lower cloud coverage across the north allowing for efficient daytime heating paired with increasing moisture has helped these showers easily develop. Activity farther south has been struggling as a result of a persistent cloud shield across the area, which has limited daytime heating and therefore, available energy. 

However, CAM guidance continues to indicate development across the Treasure Coast and near Lake Okeechobee late afternoon into the evening hours as well as increasing coverage of showers across the northern portions of the forecast area. 

While a lack of instability may be an inhibiting factor for storm development, shear, dry air aloft, and increasing PWATs will still support the potential for storm development this afternoon into the evening hours. Any storms that do manage to develop may be capable of producing lightning strikes, gusty winds to 45 mph, and heavy downpours. 

Minor localized flooding in areas that see training or multiple rounds of showers and storms cannot be ruled out, and a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall continues to be highlighted across portions of the Treasure Coast. 

Activity from this afternoon is forecast to slowly diminish into the overnight hours across east central Florida, with ongoing development anticipated across the local Atlantic waters. 

Persistent east to northeast flow may help some activity move onshore, with isolated showers and even a storm or two possible along the immediate coast overnight. Cloud cover is forecast to remain high as a result of the increasing moisture locally, with temperatures overnight falling into the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Wednesday thru Thursday: A persistent middle to upper level trough across the eastern US will slowly shift eastward across the Atlantic on Thursday, with a brief period of quasi-zonal flow aloft forecast across the Florida peninsula Friday into the early weekend. 

This flow will be short-lived as another trough begins to build towards the area as a mid to upper level trough gradually works its way eastward across Canada and towards the Great Lakes. A mid to upper level cutoff low then develops across the central US, resulting in a return of some mid-level ridging across the Florida peninsula towards the middle of next week. 

At the surface, this pattern will allow for the reestablishment of a surface boundary that will meander near to just south of the forecast area late this week into early next week, resulting in increasing moisture locally. 

By the middle of next week, the boundary is anticipated to diminish, with lingering moisture remaining across the area. This increasing moisture will result in greater rain chances across east central Florida through this weekend (30 to 70 percent). The greatest rain chances are focused across southern portions of the forecast area, where PWATs are anticipated to be highest (1.8 to 2.0"). 

Locally heavy rainfall will be a concern through the period, and there is a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for portions of the Treasure Coast on Thursday. Weak steering flow aloft combined with the higher moisture may support training activity and/or multiple rounds of slow-moving showers. 

By next week, discrepancies in moisture between global models lead to some varying PoPs, so stuck with the NBM at 30 to 50 percent Monday through Wednesday. 

Storm development cannot be ruled out with daily activity across east central Florida, with lightning strikes and gusty winds the main concerns aside from heavy rainfall and flooding. Activity is forecast to diminish late each evening across the peninsula, with ongoing development through the overnight hours possible across the local Atlantic waters. 

Outside of showers and storms, east to northeast flow is forecast to persist through at least this weekend and into early next week, generally between 10 to 15 mph during the day and becoming lighter into the overnight hours. Temperatures are anticipated to remain near to slightly below normal in the mid 80s to low 90s through early next week, with lows in the low to mid 70s.